***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 2.6 0.1 49.4 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.1 2.1 -0.2 45.7 49.0 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.8 2.9 0.2 50.4 50.9 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.9 -0.8 0.7 -0.3 44.9 48.2 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.8 1.6 0.0 50.1 50.2 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.2 51.0 52.2 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.5 2.9 1.9 -0.2 45.8 48.9 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -0.6 1.6 0.3 54.4 52.5 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.2 2.5 0.2 52.5 51.4 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.6 2.1 0.2 54.9 52.0 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 1.9 0.2 51.9 52.0 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.8 1.9 0.4 52.4 53.0 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.0 1.6 0.4 49.5 53.1 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.2 2.8 0.2 52.3 50.9 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.9 0.8 -0.5 43.8 46.8 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.4 1.5 0.3 50.3 52.0 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.3 2.7 1.9 -0.3 46.4 47.9 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.2 53.2 51.9 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.1 3.2 2.4 -0.1 47.8 49.6 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -1.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 49.8 51.5 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.6 2.7 0.2 53.1 51.1 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 0.9 3.0 2.3 -0.2 47.8 48.9 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.0 2.9 0.1 51.1 50.4 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.4 2.8 0.2 53.6 51.6 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.0 1.2 -0.2 46.6 49.2 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.2 1.4 0.4 50.3 53.6 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.4 1.9 0.0 47.0 50.1 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.1 3.6 1.0 -0.3 45.4 48.6 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.3 1.5 0.2 50.2 51.8 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.8 2.3 -0.1 46.3 49.7 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------