***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 2.0 -0.3 45.2 49.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.8 1.3 -0.7 33.0 45.5 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.4 2.3 -0.1 44.8 50.1 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.0 0.2 -0.5 43.9 48.2 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.0 1.2 -0.1 49.3 51.6 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.4 1.0 0.4 55.0 55.6 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -0.1 1.6 1.1 -0.8 32.9 45.4 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.4 1.5 0.4 52.9 54.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.2 2.2 0.2 54.1 53.1 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 1.9 0.4 54.5 54.1 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.5 1.5 0.2 53.9 53.5 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.5 1.6 0.3 54.4 54.5 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.7 1.3 0.4 56.7 55.3 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.3 2.5 0.2 48.6 51.9 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 1.8 0.3 -0.8 38.9 46.1 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.1 1.2 0.2 54.3 53.7 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 -0.2 1.9 1.1 -0.8 30.9 45.1 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.4 52.3 54.3 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.7 1.7 -0.6 36.7 46.6 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -1.0 1.3 0.4 0.3 47.5 53.6 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.9 2.3 0.1 51.4 52.0 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.6 1.6 -0.6 35.4 46.3 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.4 2.3 -0.2 42.9 48.7 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.6 2.5 0.3 51.8 52.9 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.3 0.8 -0.2 45.8 49.7 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.5 1.3 0.5 55.2 55.6 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.0 1.4 -0.2 45.9 49.6 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.2 0.5 -0.5 43.4 48.3 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 1.9 1.3 0.4 50.8 54.2 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.6 1.6 -0.6 36.8 46.7 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------