***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.9 -2.1 34.1 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.7 -0.2 -3.0 25.5 33.6 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.1 3.6 1.1 -2.1 34.8 38.3 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -1.4 -1.8 -1.0 -2.4 30.8 35.4 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 2.6 0.0 -2.0 35.9 38.4 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.9 0.3 -1.1 41.1 44.1 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.3 -0.3 -3.0 24.8 33.2 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.5 -1.1 0.6 -1.2 43.3 43.5 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.3 1.0 -1.7 40.1 40.4 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.3 0.9 -1.3 43.6 42.7 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.3 0.5 -1.5 40.4 41.2 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.9 0.9 -1.0 43.4 44.3 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.6 0.8 -0.8 42.9 45.8 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.9 1.2 -1.6 40.7 40.9 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.9 -0.8 -2.4 28.4 34.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 3.8 0.3 -1.4 40.6 42.3 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.4 1.3 -0.8 -3.3 21.7 31.1 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.7 1.1 -1.1 45.2 44.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 2.0 0.2 -2.7 27.7 34.8 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 -1.1 42.4 44.6 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.5 1.1 -1.8 37.5 39.4 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.1 -0.4 -3.2 23.9 32.0 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.5 0.8 -2.3 31.8 36.8 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.3 1.5 -1.4 43.1 42.4 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.2 -0.3 -2.2 34.1 37.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.0 1.2 -0.4 47.0 48.5 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.3 0.4 -2.2 35.2 37.6 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.6 2.9 -0.7 -2.3 32.0 36.2 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.8 0.8 -0.9 45.8 45.8 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.0 0.2 -2.7 28.3 35.1 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------