***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.1 -4.0 20.1 22.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 0.7 -1.0 -2.0 -5.8 9.2 14.3 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.1 0.3 -3.7 23.3 25.0 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 -4.1 22.5 22.3 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.2 -0.4 -3.1 27.2 28.8 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.4 3.5 0.5 -1.2 41.8 39.9 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 0.3 -1.0 -2.1 -5.8 8.9 13.9 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 0.3 -1.3 0.3 -1.8 39.4 37.1 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.1 0.7 -2.8 31.3 31.2 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.3 3.7 0.7 -2.0 37.3 36.1 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 3.8 0.4 -2.3 34.6 33.9 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.7 3.2 0.6 -1.7 38.5 37.2 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.1 4.2 1.5 -1.0 41.8 41.1 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.4 2.9 0.9 -2.7 32.6 33.3 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 1.3 2.0 -1.1 -4.2 19.6 21.1 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.4 0.6 -1.8 37.2 36.4 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 0.1 -1.0 -2.7 -6.1 8.2 11.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 3.4 2.6 0.9 -1.5 40.6 39.4 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 0.5 -0.5 -1.4 -5.2 12.8 17.0 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 3.2 2.1 -0.3 -1.4 39.5 38.9 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.5 0.7 -3.3 26.6 28.1 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 0.6 -0.6 -2.1 -5.8 8.7 13.2 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 1.1 0.9 -0.3 -4.2 20.8 22.2 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.7 3.2 1.3 -2.2 35.5 35.5 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.3 1.0 -0.8 -3.7 21.6 23.7 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.5 3.5 0.9 -1.2 41.6 39.3 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.5 -0.4 -3.9 20.8 23.0 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.7 -1.3 -3.7 25.0 24.7 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.5 1.5 0.7 -1.2 41.5 40.7 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 0.7 -0.3 -1.4 -5.3 11.7 16.8 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------