***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.7 -1.6 30.8 35.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -3.8 -4.6 -2.1 24.8 30.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.8 -1.3 33.0 36.6 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -6.8 -7.1 -6.4 -1.6 30.5 34.3 -6.8 -5.5 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -5.5 -1.2 34.7 38.5 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -3.1 -6.2 -0.3 45.5 46.6 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -4.7 -2.3 24.0 29.8 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.4 -7.1 -5.8 -0.5 41.2 45.2 -7.9 -6.8 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.5 -4.5 -0.9 37.3 41.0 -2.6 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -1.5 -2.8 -5.3 -0.6 42.1 44.3 -3.1 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -5.3 -0.8 37.2 41.7 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -3.3 -5.3 -0.4 40.0 45.5 -3.4 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.2 -5.3 -0.2 44.2 47.5 -3.4 -1.9 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.5 -4.9 -1.2 35.6 38.8 -2.7 -1.0 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 -4.3 -3.6 -5.7 -1.6 27.3 33.8 -3.3 -2.6 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -1.7 -5.7 -0.8 38.0 42.3 -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -4.9 -2.4 23.3 28.3 -3.1 -1.9 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -3.3 -4.7 -5.8 -0.5 45.5 45.7 -5.4 -3.6 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -3.2 -3.5 -4.4 -1.9 26.4 31.7 -3.2 -1.6 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -6.0 -6.5 -6.6 -0.1 48.3 49.4 -7.4 -6.4 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -3.0 -2.9 -3.9 -1.1 34.9 38.6 -3.0 -1.3 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -4.6 -2.2 24.4 29.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.2 -1.6 30.3 34.1 -3.4 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -3.0 -4.8 -0.9 38.6 41.2 -3.5 -1.7 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 -5.3 -1.5 31.7 35.1 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.1 -4.8 0.1 49.7 50.2 -3.1 -2.1 -1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 -3.4 -2.9 -4.5 -1.6 30.4 35.1 -2.5 -1.3 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 -5.1 -4.4 -6.0 -1.5 32.2 35.8 -4.3 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -3.8 -4.3 -6.3 -0.5 45.1 45.9 -5.3 -4.2 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -4.3 -1.9 27.2 32.0 -3.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------