***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.6 0.3 47.7 52.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -5.1 -2.7 -3.2 0.0 43.5 50.1 -3.8 -2.3 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -0.5 -2.8 0.5 46.5 52.9 -2.7 -0.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.6 -6.2 -5.6 0.0 44.1 50.2 -7.3 -5.2 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.7 -4.8 0.5 48.6 52.9 -4.2 -1.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -2.9 -6.2 0.3 48.6 53.7 -5.2 -2.7 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -5.0 -3.0 -3.3 -0.2 43.2 50.2 -4.6 -2.3 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -6.6 -7.1 -5.1 0.9 51.3 56.1 -9.1 -7.3 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.3 -3.7 0.7 50.7 54.0 -3.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -1.9 -4.5 1.0 51.4 55.7 -4.0 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.2 -4.7 0.7 48.2 54.7 -4.3 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -2.5 -3.0 -4.8 0.9 48.6 55.5 -5.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -5.3 -1.9 -5.3 0.7 48.8 55.1 -5.0 -1.8 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -2.1 -3.8 0.6 45.3 53.2 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -4.4 -3.0 -5.3 -0.4 40.1 47.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -1.5 -5.4 0.5 47.5 54.0 -3.3 -1.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -5.6 -3.7 -3.2 -0.2 43.7 49.3 -4.3 -3.2 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.4 -3.0 -4.9 1.1 52.2 56.5 -6.4 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -4.9 -2.4 -3.1 0.1 43.9 50.7 -5.1 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -5.8 -6.3 -5.9 1.0 54.5 56.8 -9.1 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 0.6 47.6 53.6 -4.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -5.2 -2.9 -2.9 0.1 47.1 50.8 -4.9 -2.9 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -3.6 -3.0 0.3 43.7 51.8 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.7 -3.8 0.9 48.1 54.9 -4.1 -2.5 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -1.8 -4.5 0.2 44.8 51.6 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.4 -4.9 0.8 49.6 56.4 -5.5 -2.4 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 0.2 46.0 52.2 -2.4 -1.1 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -6.2 -3.1 -5.4 0.0 44.0 50.2 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.0 -4.0 -5.3 1.1 53.4 56.6 -6.4 -4.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -2.1 -3.0 0.1 44.3 51.0 -3.9 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------