***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.7 -1.6 33.2 42.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -3.7 -3.9 -4.8 -2.4 28.8 37.6 -3.5 -2.4 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 -1.9 -1.5 -3.8 -1.3 33.7 42.9 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -7.2 -6.5 -6.3 -1.5 35.5 41.9 -6.7 -6.0 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -3.4 -5.5 -1.1 40.3 44.3 -3.6 -3.0 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -3.6 -5.5 0.4 51.5 53.9 -4.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -5.0 -2.6 28.5 36.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -7.3 -8.4 -5.3 -0.1 47.2 50.8 -9.2 -8.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -2.7 -4.4 -0.8 43.0 46.3 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.4 -5.0 -0.3 46.8 49.4 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -5.2 -0.6 43.4 47.2 -3.3 -2.6 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.2 -4.7 0.1 47.3 51.4 -4.6 -3.0 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -2.3 -4.6 0.5 51.2 53.9 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 -2.7 -1.9 -4.8 -1.0 41.7 44.9 -2.6 -1.4 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -4.3 -3.2 -5.7 -1.5 33.1 42.2 -3.2 -2.1 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.3 -5.4 -0.3 43.9 49.1 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -5.3 -2.9 24.0 34.9 -3.6 -2.8 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -4.4 -5.3 0.0 49.6 51.3 -5.6 -4.4 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -3.4 -3.9 -4.6 -2.1 29.8 39.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -6.1 -7.3 -6.0 0.3 51.7 53.0 -9.1 -7.3 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -2.4 -3.8 -1.1 37.8 44.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -5.0 -2.6 25.3 36.1 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -4.3 -1.6 30.7 41.1 -3.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -2.5 -4.5 -0.6 43.8 47.6 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -5.2 -1.5 34.3 42.7 -3.3 -2.4 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.4 -4.0 0.7 51.6 56.7 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -3.4 -4.5 -1.6 34.4 42.2 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -4.1 -5.9 -1.3 36.0 43.0 -4.8 -3.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -4.3 -5.3 -5.5 0.3 49.6 52.6 -6.6 -5.3 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -3.3 -4.5 -2.1 30.4 39.1 -3.0 -2.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------