***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -5.2 -4.4 13.4 19.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 -4.4 -7.7 -6.5 -5.3 9.5 14.9 -2.7 -1.0 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 -2.5 -3.6 -5.2 -4.1 13.9 19.7 -1.0 1.0 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 -8.9 -8.6 -7.3 -4.1 18.9 20.2 -6.5 -5.4 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -6.1 -3.5 20.3 23.1 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -6.6 -2.0 27.4 30.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 -4.7 -7.7 -6.7 -5.5 9.3 14.8 -3.0 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -8.5 -8.8 -7.1 -3.0 22.5 26.5 -7.0 -5.7 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -5.5 -3.3 18.9 23.3 -2.2 -0.7 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -6.5 -3.2 21.2 25.6 -2.4 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -6.0 -3.0 22.9 25.9 -2.5 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 -4.4 -4.9 -6.1 -2.5 23.8 28.7 -3.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 -4.1 -4.5 -5.6 -2.0 26.4 32.0 -2.3 -0.7 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 -3.1 -6.3 -6.8 -4.6 9.4 16.8 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 -3.8 -4.0 -5.8 -3.5 19.6 22.4 -3.0 -0.7 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 -3.5 -4.0 -6.3 -2.9 22.9 26.3 -2.2 -0.4 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 -4.9 -7.7 -7.3 -5.9 7.9 12.4 -3.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 -5.4 -6.0 -7.6 -3.6 16.7 22.2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 -4.0 -7.2 -6.2 -5.0 10.1 15.3 -2.1 -0.9 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -8.1 -9.2 -8.2 -2.7 21.4 27.9 -6.8 -4.7 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 -4.5 -5.5 -5.1 -3.8 16.6 21.6 -2.5 -0.8 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 -4.5 -6.9 -7.2 -5.9 8.6 11.8 -2.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 -4.5 -6.9 -6.0 -4.6 10.4 15.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 -4.2 -5.0 -6.6 -4.1 14.1 18.9 -2.5 -0.7 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 -4.9 -5.3 -6.1 -4.3 17.6 19.7 -2.4 -1.0 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -3.8 -3.0 -5.1 -1.5 29.8 35.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 -5.5 -6.7 -5.9 -4.6 14.4 18.8 -2.0 -0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 -5.4 -5.6 -6.5 -3.5 20.1 22.4 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 -7.3 -8.1 -8.6 -4.0 14.5 20.5 -5.3 -4.2 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 -4.4 -7.0 -6.0 -4.9 11.0 16.7 -2.3 -0.8 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------