***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.5 38.7 47.0 104.0 58.8 51.7 24.6 36.3 48.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 42.0 49.6 45.3 114.1 65.0 57.2 24.3 35.8 50.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 35.9 45.6 46.8 103.0 56.6 51.5 35.8 42.5 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 49.8 44.7 47.9 94.7 51.5 48.1 37.3 44.6 59.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 39.0 47.3 47.9 94.2 50.2 47.3 42.6 47.3 60.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 44.0 41.8 45.0 94.5 49.2 48.1 34.7 42.0 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 46.6 55.4 44.1 114.3 66.8 57.3 30.5 42.0 55.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 65.7 59.1 53.3 97.0 51.3 49.0 55.5 59.0 69.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.7 31.6 48.4 94.4 48.0 47.3 27.8 32.0 39.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 50.8 47.6 52.6 96.9 48.8 48.6 40.2 47.8 55.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 47.4 45.2 49.1 96.9 50.3 49.0 39.5 45.2 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 49.5 45.6 47.8 95.3 49.9 48.3 34.2 45.7 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 50.6 47.0 49.5 94.7 48.7 47.8 42.6 47.3 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 65.4 62.1 58.1 102.1 53.3 51.4 49.9 61.5 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 53.5 51.2 45.8 94.8 52.7 49.4 34.2 48.9 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 47.2 41.7 47.3 95.0 48.6 47.8 32.9 43.5 57.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 42.8 45.0 45.7 118.6 68.1 59.7 31.7 37.2 43.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 34.9 43.1 54.9 97.7 49.1 48.5 35.1 43.8 47.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 41.6 51.2 46.5 112.1 62.5 56.2 24.1 33.9 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 43.4 54.1 66.5 97.1 50.8 48.2 43.5 53.8 64.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 33.6 43.4 47.5 96.7 51.4 48.2 32.6 42.2 49.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 41.9 47.6 48.8 117.8 65.5 59.1 28.5 37.2 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 40.2 48.6 48.9 108.5 59.7 54.5 26.2 34.7 51.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 45.2 53.5 52.4 99.1 51.4 49.6 45.9 52.6 55.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 31.1 41.9 50.8 99.3 53.7 49.6 29.7 40.0 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 48.0 43.9 48.0 95.9 51.2 49.1 38.5 43.9 51.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 29.8 45.7 48.7 103.5 57.7 51.4 29.2 40.8 61.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 43.3 40.4 44.5 93.1 50.5 47.8 31.6 39.9 50.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 59.5 71.0 58.8 98.3 50.9 48.8 61.2 70.9 82.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 45.7 47.3 45.3 110.3 62.7 55.3 30.2 40.1 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------