***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.7 9.8 85.5 53.6 43.6 4.1 5.6 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.6 9.5 94.9 59.7 46.0 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.5 10.6 10.1 87.9 52.0 45.4 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.4 10.6 10.4 80.0 51.1 43.9 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.6 11.7 10.8 84.9 50.3 44.3 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.2 11.6 95.9 57.9 47.9 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.1 12.4 9.1 94.3 59.9 45.4 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 17.7 12.9 96.4 57.8 47.7 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 7.4 11.6 88.0 51.3 44.7 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.4 12.7 94.3 55.4 46.7 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.8 11.3 91.4 53.9 46.5 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 9.7 11.8 96.5 58.3 47.7 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.0 13.2 12.1 96.4 59.3 47.1 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.6 12.5 14.1 97.3 55.3 47.6 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.8 6.7 10.2 79.7 55.1 45.5 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.0 11.2 91.8 55.0 46.3 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.2 9.3 98.7 62.0 47.2 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.0 9.0 13.4 95.9 54.5 46.5 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 11.1 10.0 95.2 58.1 46.8 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 12.3 15.8 93.4 54.0 46.7 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.3 10.1 10.6 84.6 50.9 43.4 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.2 10.2 100.2 60.9 48.8 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.9 10.9 95.5 56.1 47.8 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.4 12.6 94.3 52.7 46.5 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.2 10.1 10.3 81.0 50.9 42.0 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.7 12.2 98.3 58.8 47.7 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.9 10.1 85.3 53.6 42.9 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.1 10.2 82.1 53.6 45.3 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.5 16.6 14.5 97.3 55.9 47.4 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.3 9.6 92.0 57.1 45.5 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------