***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.2 8.6 10.1 80.8 51.7 42.8 5.5 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.4 10.8 97.2 59.5 47.8 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.8 12.7 10.5 84.4 53.0 43.6 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 11.3 11.0 80.6 49.8 43.6 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.1 11.5 9.0 68.5 44.1 37.4 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.9 11.3 8.7 67.1 44.1 39.0 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.3 10.1 91.3 58.1 46.3 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.9 16.7 10.0 69.7 43.0 37.8 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.0 7.6 9.1 68.3 41.2 35.7 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.5 11.0 9.5 69.1 41.1 36.4 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.3 9.1 9.1 68.0 41.8 36.7 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.3 9.4 9.3 68.9 43.0 38.6 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 7.5 10.0 8.7 62.9 39.0 36.7 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 8.2 13.5 12.4 85.9 50.7 41.8 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.2 12.5 94.7 57.9 49.3 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.3 8.1 8.8 66.4 41.3 37.2 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.6 10.7 96.9 56.8 47.0 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 8.1 10.3 72.0 43.1 36.1 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.0 11.0 96.4 59.5 47.3 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 13.1 14.0 74.2 47.1 39.2 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.0 11.1 9.8 74.8 47.1 38.9 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.8 11.6 100.9 59.2 47.7 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.4 11.2 91.9 56.7 45.2 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.4 10.4 11.0 80.2 48.1 39.1 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.6 10.8 10.7 77.6 50.8 41.2 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.0 12.8 10.1 73.2 44.1 41.3 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.8 10.5 80.7 51.8 43.0 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.5 11.4 10.5 82.2 51.0 44.9 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.1 15.6 11.5 74.1 44.9 37.2 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.0 10.6 92.1 57.5 46.4 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------