***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.8 8.9 12.7 114.7 65.6 60.9 2.3 3.8 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 6.5 11.7 12.1 124.6 67.5 64.0 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 7.9 12.0 12.1 105.7 63.6 59.2 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.7 12.7 103.5 64.0 57.2 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.2 14.1 106.4 61.8 57.7 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.3 8.9 12.6 109.6 64.1 58.2 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 15.0 14.6 12.6 134.6 69.5 66.1 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.5 21.9 16.5 113.8 68.3 60.2 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.6 9.3 12.7 101.7 61.1 56.7 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.0 13.5 15.6 107.9 64.0 58.2 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.9 11.6 15.5 116.3 66.7 59.9 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.7 12.2 14.5 113.0 66.3 59.6 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 9.3 11.0 16.1 115.9 66.4 59.9 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 13.5 18.4 14.8 96.6 60.9 56.1 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.6 10.2 10.4 97.7 62.4 57.3 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 7.7 9.0 14.6 113.8 65.5 59.1 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 14.4 13.9 13.7 145.8 73.4 69.3 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 9.5 11.8 15.7 103.7 62.5 57.6 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.5 11.5 12.1 115.9 65.1 62.0 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.4 18.9 109.2 68.3 60.1 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.7 10.0 12.1 100.1 62.2 56.7 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.2 17.9 14.2 136.9 72.4 67.6 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.6 10.6 12.5 107.7 63.0 59.8 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 10.1 14.8 13.6 97.4 60.4 56.1 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.0 9.8 13.7 106.9 64.0 58.2 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 9.6 12.5 14.0 114.4 65.1 59.9 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.2 9.7 12.9 113.3 64.6 60.2 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.0 10.0 11.3 99.5 62.3 56.7 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 16.9 19.0 16.5 103.5 64.1 58.2 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 6.9 11.6 11.9 119.2 66.1 62.4 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------