***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 5.3 6.8 6.7 3.2 86.2 82.0 3.3 4.0 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.5 6.5 3.1 85.5 80.2 2.7 4.3 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 7.3 8.4 7.1 3.2 87.0 81.2 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 2.1 2.9 4.1 3.0 86.9 80.9 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 6.8 7.8 5.4 3.1 87.8 81.9 3.8 5.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 5.8 7.2 4.7 2.9 86.8 80.4 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 5.2 6.2 6.4 3.0 85.8 80.7 2.5 4.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.4 0.9 4.8 2.8 85.4 79.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.6 6.1 3.0 87.0 80.9 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 6.1 7.7 5.5 2.9 86.1 80.2 4.2 5.1 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 6.6 8.3 5.6 3.0 86.9 81.5 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 6.8 8.1 5.1 2.8 85.4 80.2 4.2 5.4 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 6.8 8.0 5.2 2.9 85.2 80.5 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 7.5 8.7 6.7 3.2 85.8 80.4 4.7 5.5 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 5.3 6.0 5.0 2.6 84.3 78.6 2.8 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.6 5.2 3.0 86.9 81.4 4.7 6.1 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 5.1 5.7 6.3 2.9 85.3 79.6 2.2 3.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 4.1 5.4 5.4 2.9 86.4 79.8 2.0 3.2 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 6.3 7.4 6.7 3.1 85.8 80.1 3.5 4.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 3.7 4.2 3.9 2.7 85.6 78.7 1.0 2.4 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 6.9 7.8 6.7 3.1 86.7 81.4 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.7 6.4 2.8 84.4 79.0 2.8 4.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 6.1 7.1 7.0 3.1 86.4 80.0 3.3 4.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.6 9.0 6.5 3.1 86.5 80.8 4.7 5.5 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.8 5.7 3.2 88.1 82.4 3.0 4.4 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 6.1 6.7 4.5 2.6 85.0 80.1 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 7.3 8.1 6.4 3.2 87.8 82.2 4.2 5.7 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 6.3 7.4 4.6 2.9 85.9 79.5 3.7 5.0 5.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 3.5 4.4 4.8 2.8 85.6 79.5 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 5.6 6.4 6.6 3.1 85.9 80.9 2.9 4.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------