***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.6 5.6 2.6 71.0 68.2 2.6 3.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.8 5.4 2.5 71.8 67.6 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.7 5.9 2.5 72.6 67.3 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 2.6 3.5 3.5 2.9 77.5 71.3 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 7.1 7.8 4.4 2.8 74.7 69.6 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.1 3.8 2.4 68.3 66.0 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 5.8 6.8 5.3 2.4 70.8 67.7 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.4 0.8 4.1 2.5 72.4 66.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.9 5.1 2.7 73.8 68.1 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.9 4.6 2.6 72.3 67.0 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.8 4.5 2.7 76.7 69.0 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.4 4.3 2.5 73.1 67.8 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.1 8.0 4.0 2.5 71.7 68.0 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.2 8.3 5.4 2.5 70.9 66.1 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 5.2 5.9 4.3 2.8 75.6 70.9 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.4 4.2 2.7 74.9 68.9 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 5.6 6.0 5.3 2.4 71.3 67.5 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.8 4.6 2.5 70.2 66.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.6 5.6 2.5 72.3 67.4 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.3 3.7 3.2 2.2 70.0 65.3 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 7.7 8.6 5.5 2.6 73.0 67.6 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.1 6.9 5.4 2.4 71.4 67.2 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.2 5.9 2.5 72.1 66.9 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.6 5.3 2.5 70.5 66.6 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.1 4.4 2.7 72.6 69.1 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.4 3.9 2.4 72.9 69.5 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.2 5.2 2.6 71.1 68.1 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 5.8 6.4 3.8 2.9 76.3 70.3 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 3.2 3.6 4.1 2.3 69.3 65.5 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.0 7.0 5.4 2.5 72.1 67.8 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------