***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 5.6 10.4 9.4 5.7 94.1 88.7 2.6 3.5 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 6.9 10.0 9.2 5.6 93.5 87.5 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 8.3 12.9 10.0 5.8 93.7 87.4 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 2.5 5.0 6.4 5.1 88.4 85.3 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 7.7 11.3 8.2 5.5 92.4 87.7 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 6.8 10.8 7.6 5.6 92.7 87.9 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 6.8 9.8 9.1 5.6 93.9 88.1 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 0.8 3.0 7.7 5.5 92.6 86.9 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 7.9 12.9 8.9 5.4 92.7 87.3 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.3 12.6 8.5 5.7 93.1 86.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 8.2 12.3 8.6 5.6 93.0 87.5 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 7.5 11.6 7.9 5.3 92.2 87.4 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 7.8 11.6 8.4 5.6 92.6 87.8 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 8.7 14.9 9.8 6.0 92.6 85.5 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 5.7 7.4 6.8 4.1 86.2 82.2 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 8.1 12.6 8.2 5.7 92.5 88.1 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 6.1 9.2 8.9 5.4 93.1 87.3 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 4.0 10.5 8.6 5.9 92.3 86.3 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 7.7 11.3 9.5 5.6 93.5 87.1 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 3.6 9.0 7.0 5.6 92.6 86.2 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 8.3 12.6 9.6 5.6 94.0 87.8 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 6.6 10.6 9.0 5.3 93.1 86.4 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 6.9 11.1 9.7 5.6 93.2 86.6 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 8.8 12.4 9.7 5.9 92.7 86.4 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 6.7 10.9 8.6 5.8 95.0 88.7 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 7.5 8.9 7.2 4.9 93.1 87.7 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 8.0 11.6 9.3 5.9 95.0 89.2 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 6.7 9.5 6.9 4.8 87.4 83.7 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 4.1 8.9 7.9 5.8 92.0 86.3 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 7.4 10.3 9.3 5.6 93.7 88.0 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------