***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 7.5 8.0 7.5 2.8 77.9 77.2 2.6 5.2 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 6.6 7.0 7.3 2.7 78.2 76.6 2.5 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 8.6 9.0 7.9 2.9 77.8 76.7 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 3.1 2.6 4.5 2.4 72.6 71.7 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 8.3 8.8 6.2 2.6 75.0 73.7 3.5 5.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.8 7.2 4.9 2.5 69.6 71.3 2.9 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 6.4 6.7 7.1 2.6 77.6 76.6 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.5 2.1 4.9 2.2 68.1 68.4 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 8.9 9.0 6.9 2.5 75.2 73.7 3.9 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.5 8.0 5.8 2.5 71.3 71.0 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 8.0 8.4 6.5 2.5 73.4 72.9 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.7 5.3 2.2 70.0 69.7 3.5 5.2 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 7.8 7.6 6.1 2.3 71.3 70.9 3.5 5.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 9.2 10.1 7.5 3.0 78.9 75.8 3.6 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.9 6.5 6.0 1.9 73.4 70.3 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 8.7 8.9 5.9 2.4 72.6 72.7 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 6.1 6.1 6.6 2.4 76.1 74.5 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 5.1 5.5 5.5 2.5 71.8 71.0 2.1 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 7.5 8.0 7.5 2.8 78.6 76.8 3.1 5.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 4.5 4.2 3.9 2.1 66.9 67.1 1.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 8.5 8.7 7.6 2.7 75.6 75.0 3.4 5.6 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.3 6.9 2.4 77.1 74.2 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 7.5 8.0 7.6 2.9 78.9 77.0 3.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 9.0 9.3 7.4 2.9 76.8 75.0 3.2 6.4 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 7.5 8.0 6.7 2.8 77.7 76.4 2.7 5.1 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.7 4.6 1.9 68.1 67.5 3.0 4.5 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 8.6 9.1 7.1 2.8 77.8 77.2 2.9 5.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.7 5.3 2.2 71.6 70.1 3.5 5.2 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.2 4.9 2.4 70.2 70.2 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 7.0 7.4 7.5 2.8 78.5 77.4 2.9 5.1 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------