***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 -0.3 0.6 1.2 3.2 89.3 82.8 -2.8 -1.4 -0.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 -0.6 0.5 0.9 3.0 89.1 82.3 -3.4 -1.6 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 0.9 2.5 1.1 3.0 89.8 83.1 -1.2 0.1 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 -3.7 -3.0 -1.3 3.1 89.1 84.1 -6.8 -5.3 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 3.3 91.3 84.6 -3.2 -2.0 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 -1.6 -1.1 -2.7 2.9 90.3 82.8 -3.8 -2.5 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 -0.7 0.5 0.9 3.1 89.0 82.0 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 -5.5 -4.9 -2.3 3.2 89.4 83.8 -7.8 -6.8 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 3.0 90.2 83.2 -2.5 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 -0.8 0.0 -1.8 3.1 89.8 83.8 -3.3 -1.7 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 -0.8 0.2 -1.1 3.2 91.3 84.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 -1.3 -0.7 -1.6 3.2 90.3 83.9 -3.4 -2.6 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 -0.6 0.0 -2.0 2.9 89.4 82.4 -3.3 -1.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 -0.3 0.7 -0.6 3.2 90.2 84.5 -2.6 -0.9 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 2.7 87.1 82.5 -3.1 -2.7 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 -0.2 0.5 -1.6 3.1 91.2 83.7 -2.3 -0.9 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 3.0 88.4 82.0 -3.0 -1.9 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 3.2 90.2 84.4 -5.3 -3.7 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 -0.8 0.3 0.8 3.0 88.8 82.4 -3.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 -4.7 -4.0 -3.3 3.2 88.6 83.2 -7.2 -6.2 -5.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 -0.3 0.7 0.6 3.1 90.8 83.4 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 -1.2 -0.1 0.8 3.0 88.7 82.0 -3.0 -2.1 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 -0.9 0.0 0.6 2.9 88.5 82.6 -3.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 3.1 91.6 84.4 -3.5 -1.7 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 -0.7 0.2 0.4 3.2 90.8 83.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 -1.1 -0.5 -2.0 2.9 88.3 81.6 -3.1 -2.0 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 0.1 1.4 1.0 3.2 90.1 82.9 -2.3 -1.4 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 3.0 89.1 83.4 -4.0 -3.1 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 -3.0 -2.3 -2.7 3.2 90.0 84.2 -5.1 -4.0 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 -0.5 0.9 1.0 3.1 89.3 82.5 -3.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------