***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 0.1 0.4 0.3 2.6 70.7 69.0 -3.9 -1.8 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 -0.3 0.6 0.0 2.6 71.9 68.7 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 1.8 1.9 0.4 2.7 75.1 70.7 -2.5 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 -3.7 -3.0 -1.9 3.0 77.6 73.1 -7.1 -5.8 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 -0.3 0.0 -1.4 3.1 78.0 72.8 -4.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 -1.4 -1.7 -3.3 2.9 74.3 71.9 -5.3 -2.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.5 69.1 68.1 -4.0 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -5.8 -5.5 -2.9 3.1 77.0 72.0 -9.1 -6.8 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 0.9 1.3 -1.0 3.0 76.8 72.2 -4.3 -0.8 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.8 -2.3 3.1 77.4 72.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 0.0 0.9 -1.9 3.2 78.9 73.2 -4.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -1.2 -0.7 -2.4 3.1 77.3 72.4 -5.6 -2.7 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 -0.8 -0.3 -2.8 3.0 74.0 71.1 -4.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 0.5 1.1 -1.2 3.3 79.5 73.4 -2.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 2.7 74.6 72.0 -5.2 -2.8 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 0.1 0.4 -2.4 3.2 76.9 73.0 -3.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 2.6 71.8 68.5 -3.7 -2.2 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 -2.2 -1.7 -2.9 3.3 77.0 72.7 -5.7 -3.7 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 -0.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 73.7 69.4 -2.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -4.1 -4.0 -4.1 2.9 75.4 69.5 -9.8 -7.2 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.9 -0.2 2.8 75.5 71.0 -4.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 2.6 72.7 69.7 -3.6 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 -0.6 0.0 0.1 2.8 75.6 70.5 -2.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 0.3 0.8 -1.5 3.2 78.1 73.3 -4.1 -1.2 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.7 2.8 73.4 70.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 -0.8 -0.6 -2.8 2.8 73.1 70.6 -4.6 -3.2 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 1.0 1.7 0.0 2.7 69.6 68.7 -4.1 -1.1 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.0 -1.8 3.0 77.4 73.0 -5.8 -2.9 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -2.3 -1.5 -3.2 3.2 76.3 72.0 -6.7 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 0.2 0.9 0.1 2.6 71.7 69.0 -3.8 -1.7 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------