***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 0.2 2.3 3.2 4.9 89.6 85.6 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 0.3 3.1 2.7 4.6 91.0 86.2 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 2.3 4.0 2.9 4.5 88.9 84.5 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -3.1 -1.3 0.3 4.4 89.1 85.1 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 0.9 2.2 1.4 4.7 90.0 85.3 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 -0.1 1.2 -1.0 4.2 88.2 84.7 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 0.4 3.0 2.9 4.8 91.3 86.5 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -4.3 -3.0 -0.5 4.7 87.6 84.3 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 1.4 3.0 1.1 4.3 89.8 84.6 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 -0.2 2.2 -0.1 4.5 88.2 84.0 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 1.0 2.1 0.6 4.4 89.5 84.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 0.1 1.5 0.2 4.6 88.1 84.0 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 0.2 1.6 -0.3 4.2 86.6 82.0 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 0.9 2.3 0.9 4.5 88.3 83.5 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 -0.4 1.5 1.2 3.8 89.9 84.5 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 0.9 2.2 0.1 4.3 89.0 84.0 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 0.1 2.8 2.8 4.7 91.8 86.6 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.2 -0.5 4.6 88.5 83.2 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 0.5 2.7 2.5 4.4 89.9 85.4 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -3.3 -0.8 -1.1 5.1 87.5 83.7 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 1.5 2.6 2.4 4.5 89.6 84.9 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 -0.1 2.7 2.6 4.5 90.1 85.9 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 0.0 1.6 2.2 4.2 88.9 84.6 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 -1.0 1.1 0.7 4.3 88.4 82.9 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 0.6 1.9 2.5 4.8 89.6 85.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 -0.5 1.3 -0.1 4.3 86.8 82.7 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 0.7 3.8 3.0 4.9 89.4 85.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 -1.0 0.2 0.4 4.2 88.8 84.2 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 -1.4 0.4 -1.0 4.8 88.1 83.7 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 0.7 2.8 2.8 4.7 90.4 86.0 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------