***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.9 81.1 80.7 -2.4 0.1 1.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.7 79.1 78.7 -2.7 -1.2 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 3.2 3.5 1.9 2.6 81.1 79.8 -1.4 1.0 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 -2.3 -1.5 -0.4 2.6 79.5 77.8 -6.2 -5.0 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 0.8 1.3 0.8 2.8 82.9 80.5 -2.4 -0.2 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 0.1 0.7 -1.6 2.5 79.9 78.5 -3.6 -1.5 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.8 79.5 78.5 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -3.7 -3.4 -1.3 2.8 81.9 79.5 -7.7 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 1.7 2.2 0.3 2.2 79.3 76.4 -1.9 0.3 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 1.0 1.3 -0.9 2.5 80.2 77.4 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 1.3 1.7 0.2 2.6 81.7 79.4 -2.5 -0.5 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 0.4 0.7 -0.3 2.8 82.4 80.7 -3.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 0.7 1.2 -0.4 2.6 81.2 79.1 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 1.6 2.0 0.3 2.5 81.3 79.8 -1.3 -0.1 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 0.4 0.6 0.8 2.1 76.7 73.5 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 1.5 2.1 -0.2 2.6 82.2 79.8 -2.0 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.7 78.7 78.5 -2.9 -0.8 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.3 2.5 79.9 78.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 1.7 2.3 1.4 2.5 79.0 78.4 -2.0 -0.9 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -2.8 -2.6 -2.3 2.9 77.8 76.5 -7.1 -4.1 -3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.6 81.0 79.3 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.6 79.7 79.0 -2.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.2 78.9 77.5 -1.7 -0.6 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 1.0 1.5 0.3 2.4 81.1 79.1 -2.1 -0.4 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 1.9 2.2 1.8 3.0 82.9 81.5 -2.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 0.8 1.0 -0.8 2.6 78.9 78.2 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 1.9 2.4 2.1 3.1 82.2 81.3 -2.5 -0.3 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 2.5 78.9 75.9 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.0 2.6 80.5 77.5 -6.0 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 1.9 2.5 1.8 2.7 79.5 78.9 -2.4 -1.0 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------