***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 49.4 16.0 18.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 21.6 18.3 19.6 49.2 17.4 20.9 24.3 35.8 50.7 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 32.2 30.0 22.0 49.0 14.6 18.7 35.8 42.5 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 32.5 29.9 23.9 50.2 17.3 19.9 37.3 44.6 59.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 33.8 29.4 26.0 53.9 14.5 19.7 42.6 47.3 60.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 32.0 30.4 25.8 56.8 18.9 21.2 34.7 42.0 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 21.7 14.7 19.3 49.4 16.9 20.6 30.5 42.0 55.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 49.9 47.8 28.6 57.1 16.7 22.6 55.5 59.0 69.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 23.9 22.1 27.4 55.0 14.9 19.9 27.8 32.0 39.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 33.1 29.4 29.6 57.5 15.7 21.8 40.2 47.8 55.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 33.0 30.3 25.4 56.3 15.6 22.0 39.5 45.2 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 29.3 25.3 24.9 56.8 16.3 22.6 34.2 45.7 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 33.2 31.2 26.0 58.4 19.4 21.6 42.6 47.3 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 40.8 35.5 27.3 51.6 12.1 18.6 49.9 61.5 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 25.4 21.0 20.4 44.1 18.7 20.3 34.2 48.9 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 26.9 23.2 24.3 56.0 16.9 21.6 32.9 43.5 57.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 22.1 17.9 18.6 48.9 18.5 21.2 31.7 37.2 43.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 31.4 26.9 32.3 57.7 14.1 22.1 35.1 43.8 47.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 24.5 21.4 20.4 49.2 17.7 20.8 24.1 33.9 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 38.9 33.0 35.3 54.9 15.6 22.0 43.5 53.8 64.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 28.3 26.1 25.0 52.5 16.2 19.0 32.6 42.2 49.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 24.1 21.7 19.2 47.3 18.7 19.8 28.5 37.2 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 25.3 22.6 22.3 49.8 16.8 20.5 26.2 34.7 51.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 40.7 36.9 28.0 53.9 13.1 20.0 45.9 52.6 55.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 26.5 21.6 25.7 50.8 14.1 18.1 29.7 40.0 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 30.4 26.5 23.8 54.3 17.1 21.0 38.5 43.9 51.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 24.5 19.5 24.4 50.9 14.7 18.8 29.2 40.8 61.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 27.2 24.3 22.1 48.9 18.2 20.7 31.6 39.9 50.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 54.7 49.5 33.8 56.9 14.0 21.7 61.2 70.9 82.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 20.9 15.1 20.0 48.7 17.3 20.1 30.2 40.1 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------