***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 73.9 51.5 43.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.0 6.8 73.6 52.0 42.8 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.0 7.4 74.4 51.6 43.0 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.4 10.3 8.0 79.3 50.6 45.2 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.4 8.5 87.2 56.8 47.2 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.1 8.6 100.0 55.4 50.6 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.5 8.2 6.7 73.1 51.1 42.5 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.8 15.7 9.0 91.2 55.5 48.4 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.2 9.0 89.2 57.9 48.4 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.3 9.4 91.8 55.1 49.1 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.1 8.1 94.0 61.1 48.6 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.4 8.0 94.4 59.0 48.1 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.3 13.4 8.3 100.0 58.8 49.0 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.0 12.5 9.3 84.9 55.2 45.8 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.7 7.4 73.3 56.4 43.3 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.3 7.9 96.0 60.1 48.7 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.2 6.4 73.3 54.5 42.9 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.2 10.2 90.1 55.6 48.6 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.3 7.1 75.5 52.4 43.4 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.6 11.2 81.6 55.8 47.2 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.2 8.3 81.4 55.8 45.7 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.0 7.0 74.6 53.5 42.8 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.2 7.8 79.3 52.1 44.3 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.6 9.1 84.9 54.0 46.3 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.8 10.3 8.6 75.9 48.9 43.9 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.9 8.2 98.2 58.1 49.3 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 6.9 8.2 74.6 49.3 43.6 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.0 10.8 7.6 82.2 55.2 45.9 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 13.0 10.7 87.7 55.6 48.4 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.1 6.7 6.9 73.2 51.2 42.8 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------