***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 64.3 44.2 37.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 2.8 6.2 7.4 73.9 51.4 37.8 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 5.7 10.3 7.3 67.2 45.2 36.6 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.8 5.0 6.5 55.2 40.6 33.0 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.7 10.5 7.1 60.6 42.6 35.5 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 4.0 4.9 5.9 53.2 37.9 31.5 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.2 7.7 7.2 71.8 49.2 38.1 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.9 13.5 7.8 62.0 43.9 35.1 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.8 4.9 7.8 64.6 43.8 37.5 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.2 6.7 8.3 65.3 44.3 36.8 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.3 6.8 61.3 44.5 35.4 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.8 8.1 6.4 59.0 42.5 34.1 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.3 4.7 6.1 55.8 37.0 32.5 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 5.5 10.3 8.4 65.0 42.9 34.6 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.9 2.9 5.8 49.7 41.7 30.3 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.6 6.1 57.4 41.4 33.7 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.9 8.0 7.3 73.8 50.1 38.5 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.1 9.4 68.0 41.8 38.0 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.7 7.8 7.6 73.9 49.9 36.9 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 8.0 10.2 64.1 42.2 36.1 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.9 9.8 7.4 64.8 44.0 37.2 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.1 8.1 7.3 71.3 45.4 36.5 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.7 7.6 7.8 72.1 46.8 35.5 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.9 8.7 8.5 67.5 43.1 37.0 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 4.9 7.1 7.4 60.2 38.2 35.0 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.7 5.3 5.7 51.3 38.3 31.3 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.3 5.8 7.6 63.7 41.1 36.6 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.0 5.9 52.1 41.5 31.6 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.2 12.8 9.7 66.0 41.0 37.0 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.7 6.0 7.2 70.7 46.7 37.4 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------