***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.1 34.5 24.1 22.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.8 3.7 33.9 29.9 21.1 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 4.1 2.7 4.3 34.7 22.5 22.9 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 6.6 7.2 4.8 35.8 25.7 23.1 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 5.8 8.3 4.8 35.2 23.8 22.2 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 4.1 2.9 5.5 37.7 23.1 21.5 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 2.4 4.1 3.6 33.5 29.3 20.7 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 7.4 7.4 5.4 38.3 26.5 22.8 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 4.0 5.6 5.2 36.9 22.6 22.5 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 4.5 3.2 5.4 37.1 22.8 22.3 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 4.1 4.6 4.7 36.6 23.4 22.2 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 3.2 3.4 4.9 39.4 27.2 22.9 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 5.3 4.8 4.9 37.4 22.7 21.1 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 6.8 5.3 5.3 36.1 22.8 24.1 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.8 4.5 33.6 28.5 23.8 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 5.0 4.1 4.8 37.4 24.2 21.7 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 2.6 3.9 3.5 32.7 30.6 22.0 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 3.6 2.9 6.0 38.0 22.9 23.2 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.3 4.0 34.5 27.4 21.8 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 4.6 4.8 6.8 37.8 23.8 22.5 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.8 36.6 23.9 23.6 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 2.0 3.2 3.6 31.9 29.2 21.4 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.2 2.7 4.5 36.1 24.4 23.3 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 4.1 4.8 5.3 37.0 22.4 24.2 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 3.3 2.5 4.4 32.3 21.2 20.3 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 4.0 3.1 4.6 36.5 25.7 20.7 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.3 4.2 32.9 23.7 20.4 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 4.3 3.0 4.7 35.2 25.7 22.8 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 6.5 4.2 6.4 38.3 23.0 23.0 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 2.6 3.6 3.8 33.8 27.2 21.0 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------