***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.2 28.5 30.8 27.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.7 17.3 20.3 17.9 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.7 1.2 3.0 25.8 26.3 23.2 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.3 5.8 4.7 37.4 33.1 30.1 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.0 6.3 5.7 42.9 31.8 28.9 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.0 5.8 51.7 36.1 32.9 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.9 1.8 19.8 22.1 21.0 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 8.1 10.7 6.4 47.1 33.6 28.3 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.2 5.4 39.9 31.1 28.7 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.5 6.1 6.6 46.6 34.2 30.3 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.3 3.9 5.8 46.1 33.9 30.4 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 3.5 5.3 5.6 46.2 32.5 27.3 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 6.7 6.7 54.9 37.6 33.5 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.3 29.9 26.0 24.3 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.3 1.4 2.7 24.6 27.3 24.1 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.9 3.9 5.6 47.3 35.4 30.7 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 16.5 20.5 18.8 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.4 5.2 6.8 44.7 32.0 29.6 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.7 1.8 16.9 19.7 17.0 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 4.6 5.1 7.0 42.8 31.7 26.2 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.4 3.4 4.4 34.7 29.8 28.4 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.9 1.3 13.5 17.5 14.7 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 2.2 1.7 2.2 18.7 22.1 17.3 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.0 4.4 5.1 35.6 28.8 26.5 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.5 3.5 5.3 39.7 35.6 32.3 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.9 5.3 5.2 45.0 31.9 28.0 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.0 2.3 4.4 35.7 34.3 31.3 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.9 34.3 30.9 27.6 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.7 11.3 7.0 44.3 32.2 28.7 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.0 19.9 22.4 20.0 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------