***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 1.4 60.0 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.4 5.4 3.8 1.8 63.3 64.1 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.1 8.0 4.0 1.5 61.8 62.0 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 3.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 61.7 61.2 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.4 2.3 1.1 59.8 59.7 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.1 1.8 0.9 57.1 57.8 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.5 3.7 1.8 62.0 63.4 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -0.2 2.1 0.9 57.2 58.2 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 7.5 3.2 1.2 59.3 59.6 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.9 2.7 1.0 57.2 58.2 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.8 2.3 1.0 60.2 59.3 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.5 2.2 0.9 57.9 58.8 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.9 1.8 0.8 55.0 57.6 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.5 7.7 3.9 1.5 60.7 61.4 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.9 5.7 2.1 1.4 63.3 63.4 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.0 1.9 1.0 58.3 59.0 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.2 3.8 1.9 62.6 64.1 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.5 2.7 1.0 54.2 57.8 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.2 6.7 4.0 1.8 63.3 64.0 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.4 1.2 0.8 53.3 57.2 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.7 7.3 3.6 1.3 60.1 60.7 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.0 6.1 3.9 1.8 62.2 63.9 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.2 6.1 4.1 1.7 63.0 63.3 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.8 3.7 1.3 58.6 60.1 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.2 5.6 2.3 1.2 59.9 61.0 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.8 1.7 0.8 57.9 58.4 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.9 3.1 1.3 59.7 60.9 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.5 2.0 1.3 63.2 62.0 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.0 54.1 58.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 4.2 6.1 3.9 1.7 62.8 63.5 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------