***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 3.0 0.8 57.7 56.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.1 2.9 0.9 57.3 56.6 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.7 3.2 0.9 57.3 57.3 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 59.7 59.9 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.8 1.7 1.1 57.4 59.1 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 4.5 4.2 1.3 1.0 53.1 57.9 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.9 3.7 2.7 0.8 56.4 55.8 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -0.8 -0.6 1.7 1.1 54.5 58.6 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.2 2.6 1.1 57.0 59.2 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 5.4 5.4 2.2 1.1 55.7 58.7 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.7 1.8 1.1 57.2 59.1 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 5.7 6.0 1.7 1.0 54.5 58.0 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 5.3 4.9 1.3 0.9 53.0 57.2 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.8 3.2 1.1 57.0 58.8 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 3.5 5.0 1.6 1.3 65.1 61.9 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 5.8 6.1 1.4 1.0 55.0 58.2 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.6 3.3 2.8 0.9 56.4 56.3 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 3.5 3.6 2.3 1.1 56.3 58.4 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.7 3.1 0.9 58.0 57.1 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 55.6 59.4 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.8 2.9 1.0 58.2 58.4 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.0 3.0 0.9 56.5 56.8 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.7 3.3 1.0 58.9 57.6 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.5 3.0 1.0 56.8 58.3 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.0 1.7 0.9 58.8 58.3 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.3 1.3 0.8 55.1 57.2 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 2.3 0.7 57.0 56.5 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.5 5.4 1.4 1.2 62.2 60.8 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 1.6 3.0 1.9 1.2 56.2 59.5 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.6 3.0 0.8 56.9 56.6 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------