***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 1.7 -0.9 40.9 43.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.3 1.5 -0.8 42.0 43.6 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.2 1.9 -0.8 44.7 44.6 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.8 0.4 0.3 -0.2 49.4 49.3 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.1 4.6 0.8 -0.3 50.3 49.4 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.5 0.7 0.1 54.7 52.9 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.5 1.4 -0.8 40.8 43.0 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.9 0.1 53.6 52.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.4 4.8 1.6 -0.3 51.1 49.9 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.6 1.2 -0.1 52.8 51.6 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.4 4.9 1.0 0.0 52.9 51.5 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.5 1.0 -0.1 52.3 51.5 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.1 0.7 -0.1 52.4 51.1 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.0 1.9 -0.3 51.0 49.8 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 3.8 3.8 1.1 0.2 54.3 52.7 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.9 0.7 -0.1 51.4 50.9 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.4 2.0 1.4 -0.7 43.4 43.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.2 1.2 -0.1 52.6 51.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.1 2.7 1.7 -0.7 43.0 44.1 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 52.7 54.5 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.4 4.5 1.7 -0.5 48.0 46.9 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.5 2.4 1.6 -0.7 43.1 44.5 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.4 3.6 2.0 -0.6 46.6 45.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.3 1.8 -0.3 51.3 49.3 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.1 2.9 0.6 -0.6 44.1 45.6 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.7 0.7 -0.1 49.6 51.0 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.1 1.1 -0.9 40.5 43.2 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.0 52.2 51.3 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.1 52.9 53.6 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 4.0 2.8 1.6 -0.8 41.5 43.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------