***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.6 -2.1 29.7 33.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.2 2.0 -1.4 36.3 37.8 2.5 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.8 3.6 2.0 -1.7 33.1 36.0 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.9 -2.6 -0.4 -1.7 30.4 34.5 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.4 0.3 -1.8 32.2 35.0 3.5 5.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.3 2.8 -1.2 -2.5 32.8 32.6 2.9 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.2 2.8 1.7 -1.6 35.4 36.2 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.1 -1.0 -0.3 -1.9 37.5 36.8 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 4.4 1.5 -1.5 36.1 37.5 3.9 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.8 0.4 -1.9 37.1 36.6 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 3.7 0.4 -1.7 35.7 36.6 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.2 3.6 0.0 -1.8 35.8 36.4 3.5 5.2 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.4 -0.3 -2.5 31.9 32.5 3.5 5.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.7 4.8 1.9 -1.4 37.7 41.0 3.6 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.0 1.7 -0.6 39.0 40.7 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 3.7 -0.1 -2.1 32.1 33.9 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.3 1.8 -1.3 36.6 39.2 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.3 -0.2 -2.3 33.6 34.7 2.1 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.8 3.9 2.1 -1.4 36.2 38.0 3.1 5.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 0.7 -1.7 -2.6 29.8 32.3 1.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.2 1.7 -1.8 32.0 35.6 3.4 5.6 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.3 3.6 2.1 -1.1 38.3 40.2 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.0 3.8 2.1 -1.4 36.4 38.1 3.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.1 3.9 1.3 -1.8 35.4 37.7 3.2 6.4 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.9 0.3 -2.4 28.4 30.9 2.7 5.1 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.5 2.4 -0.6 -2.3 31.0 32.4 3.0 4.5 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.6 0.8 -2.5 28.4 30.4 2.9 5.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.6 0.5 -1.3 35.0 37.6 3.5 5.2 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.3 33.2 34.6 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.4 1.9 -1.6 35.5 36.4 2.9 5.1 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------