***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.5 -1.4 35.4 35.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -3.9 -1.5 33.2 34.8 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.5 -3.6 -1.2 35.7 35.9 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -4.7 -6.5 -6.5 -1.4 35.7 36.0 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -3.6 -5.9 -1.1 35.6 37.9 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -4.3 -6.5 -0.4 39.8 44.8 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -1.5 33.6 35.4 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.1 -8.8 -6.9 -1.1 35.6 40.3 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -2.8 -4.6 -0.7 37.5 40.9 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -3.6 -6.4 -1.3 35.1 39.0 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -1.2 -3.1 -5.5 -0.5 38.3 41.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -4.9 -5.7 -0.5 35.9 41.7 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.5 -3.4 -6.2 -0.7 33.7 40.5 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 -1.0 -1.7 -4.8 -0.7 39.9 42.1 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 -1.4 -2.2 -5.1 -0.8 42.6 41.0 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -2.8 -6.0 -0.6 36.9 41.1 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -3.5 -3.8 -1.4 36.0 37.2 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -3.3 -5.9 -7.8 -1.9 33.4 36.6 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -3.2 -3.8 -1.4 33.5 34.7 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -10.0 -9.1 -9.9 -2.9 29.4 33.2 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.3 -3.9 -1.0 38.1 38.5 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -3.2 -3.8 -1.3 34.6 36.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -2.9 -3.9 -1.2 35.4 36.5 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -2.8 -5.2 -1.0 37.9 39.9 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -5.4 -1.3 34.2 36.4 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -3.6 -5.9 -0.9 35.8 39.8 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -3.4 -4.4 -1.4 33.9 35.6 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -3.3 -5.8 -0.9 40.2 39.9 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.2 -5.8 -8.1 -1.8 33.5 38.0 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -3.1 -3.8 -1.6 33.3 34.2 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------