***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.9 29.7 31.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.6 -2.8 -1.3 33.8 34.9 -2.7 -1.2 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -2.8 -1.4 31.7 33.8 -1.4 1.0 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -8.3 -7.9 -6.0 -2.3 26.9 28.2 -6.2 -5.0 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 -4.3 -2.8 -4.7 -1.5 30.3 32.3 -2.4 -0.2 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -3.6 -6.4 -1.2 31.7 33.9 -3.6 -1.5 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -3.6 -2.9 -2.9 -1.4 34.6 35.1 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -8.3 -8.4 -7.3 -2.7 28.3 29.0 -7.7 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 0.7 -1.7 -3.2 -0.5 35.0 36.9 -1.9 0.3 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -2.2 -5.9 -2.0 30.3 31.7 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -2.7 -4.8 -1.2 31.9 34.1 -2.5 -0.5 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 -4.3 -4.1 -5.8 -1.8 29.2 31.3 -3.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 -4.7 -2.3 -5.6 -1.5 30.1 31.6 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -2.5 -1.3 -3.7 -1.2 31.8 35.2 -1.3 -0.1 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -1.9 -3.4 -0.7 34.5 37.1 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -3.4 -2.1 -5.1 -1.2 30.9 32.7 -2.0 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -2.7 -2.7 -1.0 36.1 37.0 -2.9 -0.8 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 -5.9 -5.0 -7.9 -3.5 22.4 23.7 -3.5 -2.4 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -2.0 -2.8 -1.3 32.8 34.4 -2.0 -0.9 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 -9.1 -10.2 -10.8 -4.9 15.5 17.9 -7.1 -4.1 -3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -2.5 -2.7 -1.0 31.8 34.9 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 0.0 -2.3 -2.6 -1.0 36.5 36.7 -2.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -4.0 -1.7 -2.9 -1.3 31.9 33.8 -1.7 -0.6 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 -3.9 -2.2 -4.8 -2.0 29.0 31.2 -2.1 -0.4 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 -4.4 -2.8 -4.2 -1.9 28.7 30.5 -2.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -3.8 -4.1 -6.1 -2.2 26.3 29.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 -4.8 -3.6 -3.6 -1.9 29.4 30.7 -2.5 -0.3 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -4.8 -3.1 -4.5 -1.2 32.1 34.4 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 -7.6 -7.8 -9.2 -4.2 18.2 19.8 -6.0 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -4.1 -2.5 -2.8 -1.5 32.6 33.8 -2.4 -1.0 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------