***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 40.0 34.8 38.7 92.3 51.1 48.4 26.3 34.4 48.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 39.0 30.9 35.7 91.0 46.7 46.6 23.7 32.3 47.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 47.2 41.9 40.8 93.4 50.3 48.4 37.6 41.8 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 48.0 43.4 43.8 97.0 52.4 49.6 37.8 42.2 53.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.4 47.5 47.4 101.5 56.0 52.5 40.1 46.7 57.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 43.3 43.5 44.4 99.8 54.1 50.6 33.4 41.5 49.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.4 39.4 34.8 90.7 47.4 45.9 27.8 41.4 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 63.9 60.4 50.2 102.0 57.6 53.0 55.9 59.0 69.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 36.5 36.4 49.8 102.2 57.9 52.4 28.0 31.9 44.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 46.9 49.5 52.2 103.1 58.1 53.2 40.3 42.9 54.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 47.3 46.3 45.3 102.1 58.5 53.0 39.2 45.5 46.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 50.3 55.1 44.9 102.8 58.6 53.6 34.6 47.5 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 49.6 53.7 46.5 104.2 59.5 54.7 42.2 46.1 57.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 64.2 60.2 51.0 97.2 51.5 50.1 51.9 60.1 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 33.3 46.0 40.6 91.7 52.9 45.9 32.2 44.7 63.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 46.8 52.7 44.1 102.4 56.2 53.1 32.1 41.9 58.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 39.7 35.4 35.1 95.1 50.4 48.6 28.4 35.4 43.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 44.8 45.5 56.0 102.2 54.8 53.0 33.5 41.4 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 41.4 32.6 37.7 92.2 47.5 47.2 27.2 33.5 53.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 56.0 53.6 59.8 95.9 52.3 49.7 40.7 53.1 63.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 45.9 44.7 44.8 97.1 53.7 50.0 33.9 41.8 50.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 28.1 40.7 38.2 98.9 55.1 51.5 27.1 37.2 46.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 42.6 36.5 41.6 94.3 48.6 48.2 27.2 38.3 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 54.6 53.5 50.4 98.7 52.1 51.1 46.0 53.5 55.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 46.9 40.4 44.6 94.1 51.0 49.2 29.2 40.2 53.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 47.8 44.4 43.8 99.6 54.9 51.1 38.2 43.3 52.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 44.6 39.6 41.8 92.9 50.8 48.6 29.3 39.2 61.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 44.6 44.1 42.2 96.5 52.3 48.7 31.7 41.2 50.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 73.3 72.8 57.6 99.5 53.3 51.8 61.1 69.7 80.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 45.2 38.6 36.3 90.2 46.0 46.3 27.3 39.9 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------