***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 6.9 7.3 67.6 47.8 42.0 2.5 7.5 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.8 6.8 69.0 50.3 42.5 2.4 3.8 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.0 8.7 7.3 67.9 48.2 42.0 4.7 9.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.6 11.2 8.4 72.1 50.9 46.0 7.7 11.2 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.7 8.7 74.6 52.8 46.3 7.6 9.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.9 8.7 75.3 53.2 45.8 4.2 7.3 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.8 4.0 6.7 67.4 47.1 42.1 1.8 4.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 9.6 83.1 59.1 47.5 8.1 11.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.2 9.2 76.6 54.0 46.5 5.0 8.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.3 9.7 81.1 57.7 47.3 7.0 9.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.6 8.1 76.5 56.5 46.1 7.2 10.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.9 8.3 79.7 58.1 47.0 5.2 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.9 8.4 76.2 52.8 46.2 6.3 12.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.1 11.3 9.2 74.3 50.4 43.5 9.1 11.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.7 8.4 72.3 52.9 47.3 0.9 8.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.8 7.9 73.8 53.9 45.9 6.1 8.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.6 7.1 74.1 51.4 44.2 2.5 4.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.3 10.5 82.4 58.4 47.4 6.3 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.4 6.9 68.7 50.0 42.0 3.9 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.9 12.6 86.4 56.5 47.9 5.0 7.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.2 8.4 72.6 53.2 44.2 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.8 7.6 77.2 53.5 44.7 1.6 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.5 6.9 7.2 68.0 48.1 41.4 2.9 7.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.6 9.9 9.0 74.8 53.3 44.1 8.6 9.6 14.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.5 10.6 8.4 69.7 50.0 42.5 5.6 10.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.4 8.6 79.6 52.0 46.3 4.6 7.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.3 7.9 68.1 46.6 41.4 4.2 7.5 11.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.0 9.7 8.3 73.2 52.0 47.1 2.6 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 11.1 83.3 56.8 47.3 10.6 13.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 6.2 6.7 66.9 49.3 41.8 2.1 6.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------