***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.7 11.7 110.7 66.0 54.4 3.5 5.5 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.3 11.9 117.5 69.9 55.9 5.2 7.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.4 11.3 101.9 62.1 51.7 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 14.5 11.3 99.9 61.0 52.7 4.3 6.6 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.3 14.5 11.6 97.2 61.1 50.0 8.6 12.1 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.7 11.0 92.5 59.9 50.1 5.6 10.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 20.0 11.9 119.0 72.7 56.0 4.8 7.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.6 11.7 88.0 54.7 47.7 11.1 14.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.7 12.2 96.5 61.4 48.3 4.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.0 10.9 12.2 90.5 57.8 47.5 5.1 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.0 10.7 92.7 56.2 48.7 6.8 9.1 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.8 10.5 90.3 54.9 48.3 6.7 9.8 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 11.0 91.9 57.8 49.1 5.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.9 13.2 94.9 58.6 48.7 9.4 12.5 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.4 10.4 94.6 62.6 51.5 2.0 4.4 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.6 10.5 93.9 58.3 49.8 5.6 8.7 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.0 12.1 120.4 69.3 55.6 6.4 9.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.3 13.4 89.1 56.4 47.5 5.3 8.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.0 11.8 113.1 66.2 55.0 6.0 8.8 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 10.8 15.2 86.5 53.7 47.7 5.8 10.2 15.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.1 11.4 11.8 100.0 61.9 49.9 6.3 10.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.5 15.0 12.7 123.5 69.2 57.0 6.0 9.9 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.1 11.7 102.7 60.9 51.9 5.3 8.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.4 12.5 92.8 58.4 48.4 5.8 9.0 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.2 12.7 106.8 62.5 53.5 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.6 8.7 10.3 86.4 52.7 47.2 5.9 8.2 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 16.9 12.9 114.7 66.1 55.7 3.5 6.5 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.5 10.7 97.8 61.8 51.8 2.8 5.2 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 15.4 14.2 88.3 55.7 47.7 11.5 14.6 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.2 17.1 11.7 114.2 68.8 55.5 4.7 7.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------