***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.1 11.0 96.9 60.5 52.6 5.9 8.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.1 10.0 96.4 58.4 51.7 4.2 6.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.2 14.8 11.0 94.2 58.0 52.4 6.3 9.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.9 13.7 12.2 104.3 60.3 53.7 8.0 10.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.7 15.0 11.7 98.5 57.6 52.1 6.7 11.6 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.8 12.8 11.8 100.3 56.1 48.7 4.9 11.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.8 9.6 94.6 57.6 51.1 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.7 18.2 12.3 95.0 54.9 50.7 12.4 17.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.7 12.3 98.0 57.5 52.8 6.3 8.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.6 12.4 94.8 55.9 51.4 8.9 12.8 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.7 14.0 10.9 94.2 55.5 50.2 5.7 10.8 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.2 11.6 100.9 59.1 51.7 8.2 12.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.8 19.2 11.8 105.0 58.3 51.9 7.1 13.6 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.6 12.4 91.7 58.3 50.9 8.5 14.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 17.2 12.4 99.9 60.3 49.6 3.8 10.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.0 11.1 99.7 56.2 50.6 5.4 11.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.1 9.8 107.8 62.7 53.7 4.2 8.4 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.1 13.4 95.4 56.6 51.9 8.0 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.8 10.6 98.2 59.2 53.0 4.0 7.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.1 14.2 86.8 50.9 48.4 7.1 15.0 20.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.2 11.6 97.1 58.6 52.3 6.8 10.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.1 10.8 114.9 63.4 55.6 3.8 6.5 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.4 10.7 11.4 99.4 62.1 54.2 3.7 6.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.0 12.5 95.0 58.7 52.3 6.2 11.4 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.6 12.2 12.5 97.9 58.9 52.0 3.1 9.5 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.2 13.5 11.8 102.1 56.5 50.5 5.2 12.7 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.4 11.8 96.7 60.8 51.9 4.5 8.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 11.7 100.9 58.0 50.8 5.0 10.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.9 13.8 91.6 54.1 50.4 15.3 20.4 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.4 8.3 10.1 92.4 58.1 51.2 4.8 7.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------