***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.0 7.4 8.6 94.2 63.6 57.0 1.2 3.5 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 7.0 8.9 7.0 78.8 58.4 54.4 1.6 5.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 6.9 8.8 11.2 110.3 65.9 62.2 3.6 5.5 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 8.6 11.5 11.9 113.2 68.3 62.2 5.3 7.3 11.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.4 15.0 15.4 137.3 73.4 67.9 6.2 8.3 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.5 10.7 12.9 139.1 72.7 67.3 2.1 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 8.1 7.0 6.6 79.7 61.4 53.7 2.8 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.3 21.3 16.6 144.5 74.7 70.2 9.4 13.9 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.6 16.1 139.9 71.2 68.8 3.9 5.6 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.0 14.6 17.8 147.9 73.9 71.1 5.5 7.2 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.9 12.2 15.5 146.9 74.2 70.2 4.1 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.5 14.6 142.8 73.4 69.8 4.6 7.1 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.1 15.2 148.0 73.6 70.9 3.7 7.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 47 53 100 17.9 19.2 16.1 128.7 68.7 67.2 5.1 11.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.7 8.5 9.3 101.6 68.5 59.6 1.8 3.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.1 14.6 145.0 72.9 69.8 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 7.6 7.5 6.2 75.1 59.8 53.1 2.8 6.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.6 16.1 18.7 144.2 72.9 70.7 4.5 6.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 8.3 9.6 8.4 87.1 58.9 56.6 2.6 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 11.6 13.3 17.8 127.7 69.9 66.5 5.8 8.4 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.4 12.9 120.3 70.0 63.7 3.5 7.6 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 8.2 10.8 7.1 77.7 57.5 52.9 3.4 6.4 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 9.2 10.0 11.3 106.0 63.3 62.2 5.2 7.8 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 15.9 20.4 16.3 132.6 70.2 67.6 4.7 7.1 16.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.9 11.1 103.0 67.1 58.6 3.5 5.7 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.6 13.9 13.1 134.9 71.3 67.8 5.1 6.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.7 9.2 92.3 62.9 55.6 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 6.4 8.3 11.4 116.4 69.7 62.8 2.0 4.5 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 19.5 22.7 18.6 137.2 72.0 69.3 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 6.0 10.1 7.8 86.3 61.7 56.0 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------