***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.2 4.4 1.2 69.4 64.3 3.3 4.2 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.0 4.4 1.3 71.3 66.1 2.7 4.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.4 4.5 1.1 69.1 63.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 1.7 0.9 2.0 0.9 62.2 60.0 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.6 2.6 0.8 62.7 59.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.3 1.8 0.5 55.7 55.1 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 5.0 4.7 4.3 1.3 69.9 66.0 2.6 4.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -0.2 2.0 0.5 58.5 55.7 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.0 3.6 0.9 66.6 60.4 4.7 5.7 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.6 2.8 0.6 61.4 57.3 4.2 5.3 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.7 2.4 0.6 58.6 56.8 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.0 2.2 0.4 56.9 55.0 4.2 5.4 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.6 2.0 0.3 54.0 53.6 4.5 5.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.2 3.9 0.8 65.3 60.6 4.7 5.8 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.1 2.8 1.0 63.7 61.6 2.8 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.3 2.1 0.5 56.7 55.5 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.8 4.6 4.3 1.4 69.9 66.5 2.2 3.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.5 4.2 2.6 0.5 61.6 56.8 2.2 3.1 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.8 4.5 1.3 71.1 65.7 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.2 1.1 0.4 57.9 55.1 1.1 2.7 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.7 4.1 1.0 67.3 62.1 4.5 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.2 4.4 1.3 70.0 66.4 3.0 4.3 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.5 4.5 1.2 69.1 64.5 3.3 4.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.1 3.8 0.8 65.1 59.9 4.7 5.7 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.2 3.0 1.0 67.7 63.1 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.9 1.8 0.3 52.3 54.3 3.8 4.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.7 3.8 1.1 69.1 64.1 4.1 5.3 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.3 2.3 0.8 60.0 58.9 3.9 5.0 5.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.7 2.0 0.4 59.7 56.1 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.0 4.5 1.3 70.7 65.6 3.1 4.3 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------