***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.7 7.0 4.4 2.2 74.0 67.3 1.1 5.4 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.7 4.4 2.5 77.8 69.4 1.1 4.8 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.1 9.0 4.6 2.3 75.5 67.7 2.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 3.3 4.2 2.1 1.9 72.0 66.4 -1.1 0.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.9 2.7 1.8 71.3 65.7 1.8 5.2 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 6.8 7.5 2.0 1.5 67.6 62.6 1.6 3.5 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.2 4.3 2.4 76.6 68.7 0.6 4.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.4 0.4 2.3 1.6 66.8 63.2 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.4 9.0 3.7 1.9 70.8 65.8 3.4 6.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.6 3.0 1.7 68.2 64.1 3.2 5.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.4 2.6 1.6 69.5 64.3 2.3 5.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.6 2.4 1.5 68.0 63.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.7 2.1 1.4 65.6 62.7 1.6 4.6 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.2 4.3 2.3 73.6 66.7 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.6 2.4 1.9 71.9 66.8 2.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.6 2.2 1.5 68.1 63.6 2.1 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.2 4.3 2.5 77.0 69.9 0.9 4.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 5.0 5.2 3.1 1.8 66.1 63.6 0.8 2.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 7.3 8.0 4.6 2.5 77.2 69.5 1.6 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.1 1.5 1.6 64.2 62.6 -1.8 3.3 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 8.0 9.0 4.1 2.1 72.2 66.6 2.8 6.0 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.3 4.5 2.5 76.8 70.1 1.6 5.2 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 6.8 7.2 4.8 2.5 76.0 68.8 1.1 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 8.8 9.5 4.1 2.1 70.6 65.6 3.9 7.0 8.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.8 2.9 2.0 73.0 66.6 1.5 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.6 1.9 1.3 65.0 62.2 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.9 8.7 3.8 2.1 73.2 66.8 1.8 6.4 8.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.8 2.3 1.8 70.9 65.8 3.3 6.2 7.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.4 3.8 2.5 1.8 65.9 63.2 0.0 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.3 7.0 4.5 2.4 77.8 68.7 1.1 4.9 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------