***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.0 7.0 4.7 1.5 66.5 62.6 2.3 3.3 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 5.6 6.5 4.6 1.6 66.0 63.0 1.8 3.3 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.7 4.9 1.5 65.6 63.0 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.8 1.2 2.5 1.3 58.5 61.4 -1.3 0.2 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.4 3.2 1.3 61.2 61.0 2.5 4.2 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.1 2.3 0.9 54.0 56.8 1.9 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.5 4.4 1.5 66.6 62.6 1.1 3.1 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.3 2.8 1.1 57.3 59.3 -2.4 -0.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.6 4.1 1.4 64.1 61.5 2.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.4 3.5 1.3 59.7 60.3 2.5 5.1 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.8 3.1 1.2 59.4 59.6 2.7 5.3 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.0 2.9 1.0 58.6 58.4 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.9 2.5 0.8 55.6 56.7 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.9 4.6 1.6 66.6 62.6 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.1 2.7 1.2 56.5 60.3 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.8 2.6 1.0 57.8 58.4 3.0 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.6 4.5 1.6 67.5 63.7 1.7 2.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.0 3.5 1.3 59.1 60.1 0.6 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.4 4.8 1.6 66.0 63.4 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.1 53.3 58.8 -0.5 1.5 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.3 4.5 1.5 64.8 62.3 3.0 4.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.0 5.8 4.7 1.7 68.6 64.5 2.2 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.1 5.0 1.7 66.3 63.6 2.4 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.1 7.3 4.5 1.5 63.0 61.8 3.0 5.9 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.8 3.3 1.4 64.2 61.9 2.0 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.6 2.2 0.7 54.4 55.4 2.4 4.5 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 7.1 8.0 4.0 1.4 66.1 62.0 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.1 2.7 1.2 57.5 60.5 2.2 3.8 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.2 56.5 59.4 -0.4 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.7 6.6 4.7 1.5 66.2 62.8 1.8 3.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------