***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -0.4 -0.4 1.3 62.8 60.9 -3.7 -1.6 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 1.5 67.5 62.7 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 0.0 1.5 -0.7 1.3 63.8 61.2 -1.9 -0.5 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -5.1 -5.2 -3.7 0.9 53.0 57.8 -7.3 -5.6 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.6 -3.2 0.9 53.9 57.6 -3.7 -1.8 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -2.9 -4.3 -4.9 0.5 43.2 54.4 -5.0 -3.6 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1.5 66.2 62.7 -3.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -6.6 -7.1 -4.3 0.6 47.3 55.2 -9.0 -7.0 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -0.9 -2.2 1.0 57.7 58.7 -3.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -1.7 -3.5 0.8 51.8 56.9 -4.2 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.3 -3.6 0.7 48.8 55.5 -4.4 -2.2 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -3.8 -4.0 0.4 45.2 53.7 -4.5 -3.6 -1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -3.2 -4.3 0.4 42.4 53.0 -4.5 -2.5 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.3 1.1 59.1 59.4 -2.6 -1.0 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -2.6 -3.1 1.0 54.8 57.7 -4.7 -3.2 -2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -2.4 -4.2 0.5 45.9 54.2 -3.4 -1.5 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 1.6 67.5 64.2 -3.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -3.5 -4.2 0.8 48.0 56.7 -5.5 -3.4 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 1.5 67.2 62.6 -2.6 -1.8 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.4 -7.3 -5.4 0.8 49.7 56.2 -9.0 -7.3 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 1.2 60.4 60.3 -3.9 -1.3 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 67.5 64.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 1.4 64.7 62.1 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.6 -2.6 1.0 55.3 58.4 -4.3 -2.0 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -1.5 -2.5 1.2 58.5 59.5 -3.0 -1.8 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.4 -4.0 0.4 46.1 53.6 -3.9 -3.1 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.3 60.6 60.4 -3.5 -0.7 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.5 -3.6 0.8 50.3 56.8 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.6 -5.6 -4.8 0.7 46.9 55.9 -6.6 -5.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 1.4 66.4 62.0 -3.4 -1.7 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------