***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 1.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 70.3 65.7 -1.8 0.4 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -0.1 1.6 -0.2 1.2 64.9 62.6 -2.3 -0.5 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 2.7 3.0 0.1 1.5 68.2 65.1 -1.0 1.4 2.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -4.4 -3.8 -2.3 1.5 56.9 60.6 -6.2 -4.8 -3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 0.4 0.4 -1.3 1.9 66.2 65.5 -2.0 -0.4 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -0.2 0.3 -2.5 2.7 74.8 73.4 -3.8 -1.3 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 0.1 1.8 -0.1 1.3 66.0 63.7 -2.4 -0.3 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -5.2 -4.7 -3.0 1.7 60.8 61.6 -6.8 -5.4 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 1.8 2.0 -0.4 2.3 72.2 70.2 -2.2 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 -0.1 0.5 -2.2 1.7 61.3 62.1 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 0.6 0.3 -1.6 2.0 65.8 65.8 -2.2 -0.7 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 -0.3 -0.3 -2.1 1.9 67.0 65.4 -3.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.3 -2.1 2.0 68.6 67.4 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 0.8 0.9 -1.6 0.7 59.0 57.0 -1.0 0.6 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 0.7 1.1 -0.3 2.3 74.5 71.4 -2.5 -0.7 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 1.0 1.3 -1.9 2.0 68.0 66.8 -1.8 0.0 1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 -0.3 0.5 -0.4 1.1 60.9 60.9 -2.5 -0.6 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -2.0 -3.3 1.2 55.8 57.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 1.0 1.5 -0.2 1.3 65.4 63.1 -1.9 -0.4 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -3.9 -3.8 -4.7 1.2 53.3 57.5 -7.4 -4.1 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 1.6 2.0 0.2 1.9 71.3 67.6 -2.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 0.0 0.5 -0.4 1.0 59.2 59.3 -2.4 -0.2 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 1.2 1.4 -0.3 1.3 66.7 64.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 -0.2 -0.2 -1.6 1.2 61.2 60.7 -1.6 -0.5 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 1.2 1.6 -0.4 1.8 71.2 67.2 -2.1 -0.2 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 0.3 -0.2 -2.2 1.7 68.7 67.8 -3.1 -0.6 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 1.9 2.4 0.0 1.6 71.1 67.7 -2.2 0.3 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 -0.3 -1.5 -1.6 1.7 62.6 63.5 -3.5 -1.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 -4.0 -3.9 -4.0 1.1 53.3 56.4 -5.4 -4.4 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 1.2 1.9 0.0 1.3 66.5 63.8 -2.0 -0.4 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------