***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 36.1 35.8 48.5 116.0 63.7 60.6 25.1 32.2 43.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 37.5 45.7 43.9 118.1 65.8 61.2 24.0 32.0 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 45.7 46.8 46.5 112.3 61.2 58.3 34.0 41.3 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 61.4 74.3 78.0 166.1 87.0 80.3 37.8 46.3 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 48.5 60.4 57.2 121.5 67.8 63.1 36.3 44.2 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 48.9 51.9 55.1 127.4 72.6 66.5 30.9 40.8 49.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 44.1 54.8 45.4 122.8 68.8 63.8 27.8 40.3 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 62.3 60.3 56.7 112.8 61.6 58.3 53.4 57.8 62.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 34.7 36.5 52.5 110.4 60.8 56.9 27.3 30.2 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 46.0 43.6 53.1 105.6 56.5 53.9 35.1 42.3 52.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 45.5 46.3 55.4 119.4 64.4 61.8 35.7 43.6 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 47.4 58.7 56.1 123.7 68.5 63.9 34.3 44.7 55.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 47.3 60.7 57.9 122.6 68.7 63.9 40.0 43.9 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.5 59.9 50.1 96.5 49.6 47.7 49.0 59.9 71.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 72.8 105.7 91.4 206.6 94.1 88.2 29.1 46.1 62.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 55.8 62.4 57.1 127.4 71.2 66.1 28.6 41.2 57.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 39.0 42.4 44.7 120.3 67.3 62.4 31.6 35.3 42.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 33.2 39.6 49.3 94.3 49.3 46.8 30.7 39.8 46.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 38.4 49.6 43.6 114.0 63.6 58.6 27.0 32.1 51.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.0 52.5 62.5 95.9 52.2 49.1 40.1 52.5 63.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 41.8 46.2 51.2 113.3 64.4 59.0 32.6 37.1 47.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 41.0 46.0 44.8 114.8 63.6 58.3 26.4 36.5 47.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 39.9 43.2 44.4 108.6 60.3 55.2 26.9 35.9 49.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 50.4 48.0 47.7 98.1 51.1 49.3 44.7 47.5 57.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 58.8 55.0 59.8 124.5 69.5 64.8 27.9 38.2 54.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 58.3 63.7 63.9 138.5 75.5 71.9 36.0 42.4 45.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 41.1 59.1 51.6 116.6 64.2 61.0 29.5 36.6 59.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 54.3 75.9 78.5 180.9 89.3 82.8 30.8 38.4 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 72.8 63.1 51.2 91.5 46.4 45.4 54.9 67.8 76.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 43.3 46.4 44.8 117.7 65.0 61.1 27.6 39.2 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------