***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.7 7.9 5.0 53.4 41.5 35.4 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.5 4.9 60.3 45.4 37.5 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.6 10.6 5.2 56.6 43.0 37.0 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.3 10.8 6.3 65.2 48.7 35.3 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.5 9.5 6.5 64.4 45.7 37.2 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.9 6.8 6.4 67.0 47.8 35.1 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.6 4.9 60.1 44.8 37.4 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.8 7.3 66.2 49.2 38.1 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.2 6.6 61.6 44.7 37.0 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.8 7.2 64.0 46.3 37.5 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.8 6.7 68.0 48.6 38.0 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.9 9.1 6.7 69.2 50.6 38.2 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.9 10.2 6.9 68.3 49.5 36.4 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.9 10.0 7.1 59.7 44.6 37.1 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.4 6.6 70.4 56.1 35.6 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.8 6.6 69.1 49.1 37.1 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.8 5.4 66.5 47.3 38.9 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.1 7.5 62.2 44.0 37.1 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.1 5.0 59.8 45.0 37.1 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.0 9.5 62.9 46.0 37.7 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.6 8.5 5.9 58.2 43.5 36.5 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.9 5.7 67.3 47.8 38.5 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.9 5.4 59.3 43.6 37.1 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.4 8.7 6.6 60.0 43.4 37.1 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.4 9.1 5.7 54.0 42.2 34.0 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.9 6.8 67.5 48.4 37.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 7.6 5.1 51.8 40.3 34.1 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.3 9.3 6.3 70.7 53.5 36.2 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.5 12.1 8.3 63.5 44.7 37.8 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.3 4.9 58.0 44.3 37.1 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------