***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.2 10.2 99.5 58.9 53.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.7 13.4 8.9 99.9 60.2 54.6 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.0 10.3 102.8 59.6 53.4 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.1 11.3 95.2 57.8 48.5 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.9 11.5 100.3 59.0 50.6 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.6 10.6 94.3 56.4 49.3 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.3 13.6 8.7 99.1 59.8 54.6 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 16.8 11.5 95.1 55.9 49.3 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.8 11.9 101.0 57.9 50.0 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.5 11.9 97.9 56.4 49.5 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.5 14.4 10.9 98.2 59.8 49.3 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 10.7 97.8 58.0 49.4 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.3 10.8 96.6 58.7 49.0 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 11.8 95.1 56.7 51.2 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 13.4 11.9 101.5 62.6 49.6 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.0 12.5 10.7 98.2 59.4 49.4 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.6 8.9 101.4 63.0 54.4 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.1 12.1 97.1 54.6 49.6 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.4 9.2 100.5 60.1 54.0 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.1 14.6 94.3 55.0 50.0 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.2 11.2 101.9 57.7 51.4 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 10.5 9.9 9.4 101.2 61.4 53.5 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 10.2 101.9 60.7 53.4 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.5 11.6 99.5 57.1 51.2 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.2 10.6 11.3 98.0 56.8 52.2 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.8 11.2 98.1 56.9 50.2 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.7 9.0 10.4 96.3 57.5 52.8 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.7 11.3 100.0 61.2 50.5 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 15.3 12.3 93.1 53.9 48.9 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.0 13.4 9.2 98.5 59.0 54.0 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------