***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 17.0 23.5 16.2 146.7 78.1 64.9 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 15.0 13.5 142.7 73.0 61.8 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 15.5 19.7 15.4 140.1 77.7 62.1 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.5 17.2 19.8 156.4 76.9 62.2 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 17.6 19.4 18.8 150.6 76.5 64.8 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.3 17.8 15.4 139.2 73.0 63.6 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.9 13.4 141.4 74.6 61.3 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.1 22.0 16.5 126.5 69.6 58.3 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.6 14.4 17.3 139.3 74.2 62.2 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 19.5 22.7 17.2 134.9 72.8 61.1 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.1 16.0 17.1 137.8 72.3 61.1 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.2 16.5 15.5 131.3 69.9 59.4 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.9 21.4 16.5 139.8 72.2 63.0 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 18.6 19.6 18.0 137.7 75.0 62.1 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 18.1 26.5 22.3 189.6 82.4 68.0 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.5 18.2 16.4 141.9 73.1 62.7 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.5 12.8 137.1 71.9 59.7 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.8 15.5 16.5 124.9 69.9 59.4 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 15.9 14.1 144.4 75.0 62.1 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 15.5 18.3 20.3 118.2 66.5 58.8 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.8 15.1 17.1 142.1 76.2 63.4 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.3 16.6 14.2 147.8 75.6 62.4 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.8 15.9 15.0 142.6 77.0 61.5 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.2 19.1 16.6 131.7 72.2 60.7 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.6 18.8 20.1 155.4 79.4 67.3 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.8 14.7 16.5 133.2 70.3 60.4 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.3 18.8 17.1 144.5 76.5 64.8 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 17.0 20.5 20.5 179.0 80.5 66.6 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.8 24.2 17.1 119.4 67.6 58.3 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 17.8 13.9 141.4 74.2 61.7 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------