***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.8 17.2 153.0 75.2 71.1 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.3 14.2 16.6 155.7 79.9 71.8 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 11.6 13.4 15.6 139.4 71.3 67.2 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 16.5 47.1 40.6 318.9 95.3 92.7 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.1 15.9 20.5 155.8 77.6 72.0 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 11.9 18.8 22.8 199.2 85.4 82.4 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 12.1 16.9 18.4 174.6 80.2 75.3 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 17.9 21.5 21.4 153.0 75.0 69.9 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 48 52 100 9.1 8.6 16.8 131.5 69.8 65.6 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 8.6 10.3 16.9 118.6 65.6 61.4 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.5 14.6 20.7 158.7 79.3 72.9 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 13.0 17.0 23.1 180.5 82.2 77.1 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 13.1 17.3 23.6 168.6 80.5 76.0 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.6 12.0 13.2 91.0 54.9 52.2 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 13.6 63.2 50.6 447.6 98.2 96.9 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 16.6 19.6 23.3 183.2 82.3 78.3 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.6 14.0 17.5 162.1 77.9 72.7 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 9.2 8.4 13.2 90.5 53.6 51.5 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 10.8 13.9 15.2 140.2 75.3 68.1 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 8.6 11.6 18.0 109.0 60.7 57.8 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 10.5 11.6 17.1 140.3 71.8 67.8 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 7.7 11.9 15.5 133.7 71.6 65.6 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.0 10.7 13.9 122.9 68.0 63.1 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.3 10.0 12.9 96.8 56.5 53.9 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.1 12.3 22.7 174.7 81.2 76.1 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 14.8 27.8 29.5 239.4 91.5 88.2 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 11.7 14.3 19.1 161.8 77.4 73.1 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 16.2 31.2 40.3 348.9 94.9 92.9 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 16.3 15.6 13.5 88.7 54.1 51.2 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.1 11.0 16.9 159.5 79.1 72.2 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------