***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 5.3 5.5 5.5 1.4 68.8 67.6 3.6 4.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.0 5.5 1.3 67.3 66.7 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.6 5.7 1.2 66.0 64.4 4.6 5.5 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.9 2.0 0.5 55.9 56.4 -0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.3 3.9 1.1 65.1 63.1 4.4 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.2 3.7 1.6 72.8 67.6 3.9 4.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 4.9 4.7 5.6 1.5 69.8 69.6 2.8 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.4 0.4 4.0 1.5 70.1 66.3 -1.2 -0.5 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 6.9 7.2 4.9 1.2 66.5 63.7 4.9 5.8 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 5.9 5.9 4.4 1.4 68.8 65.1 4.4 5.3 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.1 4.4 1.4 68.1 65.3 4.7 5.5 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.0 4.3 1.5 70.6 66.9 4.6 5.5 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.5 4.7 1.9 76.6 70.4 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.3 5.5 1.3 67.9 64.4 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.6 3.3 0.5 52.3 56.2 2.9 4.3 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.8 4.1 1.5 70.1 66.5 5.3 6.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.8 5.4 1.4 67.4 67.3 2.2 3.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.5 4.4 1.4 69.3 65.4 2.2 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.7 5.6 1.2 66.3 65.3 3.8 4.6 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.6 4.0 3.4 1.7 77.1 68.7 1.4 2.8 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.9 5.3 1.2 65.8 63.9 4.8 5.5 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.1 5.4 1.2 64.9 65.3 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.3 5.8 1.2 66.5 64.6 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.5 5.3 1.3 67.1 64.5 4.6 5.9 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.4 4.3 1.3 68.0 65.9 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 6.2 6.7 4.2 1.9 78.7 71.7 3.9 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 6.9 7.0 5.3 1.5 71.1 69.2 4.3 5.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.2 2.7 0.5 54.7 56.2 3.7 5.0 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.3 3.7 4.2 1.6 73.6 67.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 1.4 67.2 66.9 3.2 4.3 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------