***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.5 4.8 1.0 57.3 59.0 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.8 4.7 1.0 56.2 58.4 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.2 5.0 0.8 55.3 57.7 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.4 1.9 0.6 54.2 56.4 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.7 3.2 0.8 54.6 58.1 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.9 3.1 1.0 58.5 59.3 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.6 4.8 1.0 58.7 59.4 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.2 -0.8 3.3 1.0 57.8 59.4 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.7 4.0 0.8 54.7 58.2 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 3.8 1.0 57.8 59.0 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 3.5 1.0 56.8 59.4 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 3.5 1.0 57.2 59.7 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.1 5.4 3.3 1.2 60.9 60.8 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 4.6 0.9 57.4 57.8 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.7 2.5 0.3 49.5 54.3 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.6 3.2 1.0 57.7 59.7 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.0 4.7 0.9 57.8 58.4 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.6 4.1 1.1 59.5 59.8 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.3 4.8 0.9 55.6 57.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.6 2.2 2.8 1.2 61.1 60.4 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 4.5 0.8 55.7 58.0 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.5 4.6 0.8 57.5 57.5 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.3 5.0 0.8 56.2 57.5 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 0.9 57.5 58.4 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 3.4 1.0 58.1 59.0 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.1 61.5 61.6 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.0 4.4 1.1 58.7 59.7 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.1 2.2 0.5 52.4 55.8 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.5 3.8 1.2 60.7 60.6 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.2 4.7 1.0 56.7 58.5 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------