***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 47 53 100 5.2 4.3 6.1 1.9 68.4 66.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 5.2 4.4 5.9 1.6 68.1 64.4 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 5.4 5.9 6.3 1.6 64.8 63.3 3.9 4.9 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.4 2.9 1.4 57.8 59.6 -2.1 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.7 4.6 1.6 62.2 62.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.4 4.0 1.9 65.2 63.4 3.8 4.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 5.1 4.6 5.9 1.8 69.9 66.0 1.8 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.1 0.8 4.2 1.6 62.7 61.6 -1.4 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.2 5.5 1.6 61.2 61.8 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.8 4.7 1.5 61.4 60.7 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.7 5.0 1.7 64.0 62.3 3.6 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.3 4.7 1.7 64.0 62.6 3.3 5.4 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 7.1 6.4 5.1 2.0 67.5 64.4 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.3 5.7 1.3 60.1 59.6 3.6 4.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.8 4.6 4.4 1.3 59.8 60.9 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.3 4.6 1.8 65.1 63.1 3.1 5.4 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 4.6 3.9 5.6 1.6 66.7 64.0 2.0 2.8 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 2.9 2.8 4.5 1.4 59.1 59.4 1.2 2.6 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.3 4.9 6.0 1.6 66.0 63.3 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 3.0 3.7 3.5 1.7 61.8 61.6 0.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.8 6.0 1.6 63.2 62.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.8 4.5 5.7 1.4 64.5 62.3 2.1 3.2 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.9 5.0 6.2 1.5 64.3 62.4 2.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.9 5.6 1.4 61.5 60.2 4.4 5.1 6.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 4.5 4.5 5.1 1.9 66.1 65.3 2.9 4.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.7 5.8 4.6 2.2 68.9 66.8 3.3 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 6.7 6.4 5.8 2.0 69.5 67.2 3.8 4.9 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.7 3.6 1.3 58.6 59.5 2.1 4.8 6.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.8 3.1 4.1 1.5 58.6 60.1 0.4 2.4 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 5.5 4.3 6.0 1.7 68.2 65.0 2.2 3.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------