***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 7.6 8.2 7.0 1.9 71.0 70.3 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 6.9 7.3 7.2 1.9 73.3 71.6 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 8.8 8.9 7.3 1.7 68.6 67.3 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.7 0.0 2.2 -0.1 41.6 43.7 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 6.5 7.2 5.3 1.4 61.8 62.1 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.5 4.9 2.2 70.7 69.7 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 7.2 7.8 7.4 2.4 79.2 76.6 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 1.7 2.3 5.3 2.2 66.9 67.0 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 7.2 7.8 6.3 1.5 63.7 64.0 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 7.5 8.0 5.8 1.9 66.2 65.5 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 8.3 9.3 6.3 2.0 70.2 67.4 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.9 6.0 2.4 71.7 70.8 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 9.1 10.2 7.4 3.1 80.4 78.0 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 9.1 9.5 7.2 1.9 69.2 67.3 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.4 4.5 0.2 46.6 48.5 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.1 9.3 5.9 2.2 70.8 69.5 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 6.6 6.6 6.9 2.1 75.6 72.9 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 5.2 5.1 5.4 1.8 66.1 64.7 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 8.4 8.4 7.2 1.8 71.9 69.7 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 5.6 4.7 4.7 2.3 67.5 67.0 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 6.9 7.4 6.9 1.5 62.6 63.6 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.9 6.9 7.0 1.8 72.6 70.2 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 7.7 7.7 7.4 1.9 72.8 69.6 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.8 6.9 1.8 68.2 66.4 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 6.4 7.4 5.8 1.5 65.6 65.0 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 7.4 8.2 6.2 3.1 80.9 79.3 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.5 7.0 2.2 75.6 73.7 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.1 3.3 0.1 43.4 46.1 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 2.3 70.3 68.6 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.1 7.2 2.0 74.2 71.9 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------